Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Pot odds, implied odds and poker probabilities

The relationship between pot odds is one of the most important concepts in poker strategy. Pot odds are the ratio of the size of the pot to the size of the bet required to stay in the pot.For example, if a player must call $10 for a chance to win a $40 pot (not including his $10 call), his pot odds are 4-to-1. To have a positive expectation , a player's odds of winning must be better than his pot odds. If the player's odds of winning are also 4-to-1 (20% chance of winning), and if he plays the pot five times, his expected return is to break even (losing four times and winning once).

Implied odds is a more complicated concept, though related to pot odds. The implied odds on a hand are based not on the money currently in the pot, but on the expected size of the pot at the end of the hand. When facing an even money situation (like described in the previous paragraph) and holding a strong drawing hand (say a four-flush) a skilled player will consider calling a bet or even opening based on their implied odds. This is particularly true in multi-way pots, where it is likely that one or more opponents will call all the way to showdown.

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